OPEC Forecasts Continued Growth in World Oil Demand
In a recent report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reaffirmed its projection for world oil demand, predicting a 2.25 million barrels per day increase in 2024, consistent with previous estimates.
Key Drivers Behind Anticipated Growth
OPEC points to various markets, such as China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America, as the main contributors to this expected growth. The alliance highlights strong demands for air travel, road mobility, and trucking as key drivers.
Furthermore, OPEC notes increased industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, as well as petrochemical capacity expansions in regions like China and the Middle East, as factors driving oil demand growth.
Uncertainties and Economic Outlook
While acknowledging uncertainties in the forecast, including global economic developments, OPEC remains optimistic about continued economic growth. Oil demand is projected to increase by 2.3 million bpd in the second half of 2024, with the services sector, particularly travel and tourism, expected to be a primary driver of growth.
OPEC maintains a global economic growth forecast of 2.8 percent for 2024 and 2.9 percent for 2025. Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais expressed confidence in the sector’s growth, highlighting a rebound in travel and emphasizing OPEC’s focus on market fundamentals.
Focus on Market Fundamentals
Al-Ghais stressed the importance of looking at economic growth, supply, and demand when forecasting oil demand. He reiterated the resilience of oil demand and the accuracy of OPEC’s forecasts, noting that last year, OPEC’s forecast for oil demand was the most accurate.